One page to check each week: the numbers that move an owner's costs, each with its date and source, and one plain line on what it means. Market pricing is data, not our forecast.
Updated October 27, 2026
Rates and the Fed
01
Fed meets October 28; prime holds at 7.00%
As of October 27, 2026
The Fed meets Wednesday, Oct 28. Prediction markets price a hold at about 93% and a December 9 hike at about 75% (Kalshi and Polymarket, observed Oct 27; market pricing, not a forecast). Prime rate has been 7.00% since the Sept 16 hike. SBA 7(a) maximum rates rose 0.25 percentage point across loan sizes.
What it means
Lines of credit, equipment loans and SBA variable loans reprice off prime; the market moved the hike to December, it did not remove it.
Educational content, not tax, legal, accounting or investment advice. Data from the sources linked; Owner Track is not affiliated with any of them.
Fuel
02
Diesel at $6.28 a gallon, up about 10 cents
As of October 26–27, 2026
EIA retail diesel was $6.28 a gallon in the latest weekly print, up about 10 cents, while Brent crude was about $114.82 and WTI about $101.19 on Oct 26.
What it means
A surcharge tied to crude can under-recover; tie it to the diesel price you actually pay.
Educational content, not tax, legal, accounting or investment advice. Data from the sources linked; Owner Track is not affiliated with any of them.
Health coverage
03
ACA open enrollment runs Nov 1 to Dec 15
As of October 27, 2026
ACA open enrollment on HealthCare.gov runs Nov 1 to Dec 15 this year; the Jan 15 backstop is gone. Proposed 2027 increases: individual plans median about +15%, small-group about +14%.
What it means
Self-employed owners on marketplace plans and small-group renewals landing now have a shorter window to compare.
Educational content, not tax, legal, accounting or investment advice. Data from the sources linked; Owner Track is not affiliated with any of them.
Owner sentiment
04
A third of owners absorb costs through their own pay
As of September 30, 2026
KeyBank 2026 Small Business Survey (1,500 owners, revenue under $10M): 33% absorb rising costs through their own pay; 53% name inflation the top threat; 54% could cover one month of expenses from reserves, up from 33% in 2024.
What it means
A business that only works because the owner is underpaid is fragile and worth less.
Sources: KeyBank survey release via PR Newswire, Sept 30, 2026
Educational content, not tax, legal, accounting or investment advice. Data from the sources linked; Owner Track is not affiliated with any of them.
AI
05
46% of small employer firms use AI tools
As of October 8, 2026
The New York Fed reports 46% of small employer firms use AI tools; only 31% saw higher sales; AI users' net hiring expectation is +33 points versus +15 for non-users.
What it means
Where you start matters more than whether you start.